Cold-rolled sheet market in 2015 Review and 2016 Outlook
2015, in the domestic economic slowdown, poor environment of the case, the entire steel market and the downstream manufacturing sector is far from satisfactory, the domestic cold-rolled sheet prices lower volatility, a decline compared with 2014 significantly expanded, to the end of 2015, the price gap has reached thousand dollars. 2015, the domestic market price of cold-rolled plate all the way down. The reason, downstream demand procurement efforts greatly reduced. At the same time, due to funding constraints and turnover and other factors, lower purchasing basic non Yahuo, to maintain "as used with the mining", cold-rolled sheet steel resources inventory backlog more. In addition, from a cost point of view, iron ore and other raw material prices plummeted billet, the cost of support before. Although the end of the year in the market situation of shortage of resources cold rolled sheet prices slightly "tail", but under the influence of multiple factors such as weak demand, the market is difficult to have a substantive breakthrough. Lange Steel cloud business platform monitoring data show that as of December 25, 2015, China major cities 1.0mm cold-rolled sheet specifications average price of 2481 yuan (t price, the same below), down 1,285 yuan more than the end of 2014, more than 2014 years Highest price drop 1774 yuan, a decline of 34.1% and 41.7%. Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, the three major cities of cold-rolled sheet prices fell 41.6%, 38.4% and 40.8% respectively over 2014. 2016, the domestic market price of cold-rolled sheet will continue to lower the main shock, the economic environment remains unchanged, poor demand, the market price is difficult to have a big difference. The national economic policy is expected to continue easing tone, capital flows downstream industries such as manufacturing entity, whereby the steel market is expected to rebound. In addition, cold-rolled sheet market need to focus on the "quantity" change in demand under difficult to change the situation, the yield can really reduce the price trend will become a major factor. Taking into account the cold-rolled sheet prices have hit 10-year low, does not rule out some time there may stage a rebound, but the overall trend is still not escape the pattern of low volatility.
2016, cold rolled market trend is mainly affected by the following factors. First, China's economy still in the downward pressure, monetary easing will continue. 2016 or national fiscal easing will continue, although difficult to support the steel industry, but the real economy is formed downstream positive. Secondly, the State Environmental Protection intensified, "excess capacity" pattern is expected to be improved. Finally, the downstream manufacturing downturn, demand is difficult to have substantive change. 2015 January to September, the appliance industry's overall revenue was 543.9 billion yuan, down 1.65%; net profit of 33.4 billion yuan, an increase of 1.6%. Overall, the 2016 appliance industry will continue to face weak demand different levels of the terminal, the dual channel inventory increased pressure problems. In addition, in 2015, international iron ore companies among the "price war" intensified, iron ore prices have been falling, billet prices have also dropped significantly. In 2016, the iron ore business truce or whether to change strategy, will raw material costs and market price trends play a crucial role, perhaps in 2016 is still "life and death" of the year. On the whole, the downward pressure in the domestic economy still exist, demand is difficult to have a substantive change, the cost of supporting the weakening under multiple pressures, 2016 domestic cold rolled market prices remain low volatility likely, though not exclude part-time stage may rebound, but the overall trend is still not escape the pattern of low volatility. Source:http://www.jnsteelpipe.com/
